Taiwan has been on the news pretty much continuously since the start of October. The country celebrated its national day on the 10th, which angered China because what wouldn’t anger China these days. Every time Taiwan acts like a country or other countries treat Taiwan even remotely as a country, China declares that this is an affront to the Chinese people..
The Chinese Communist Party (or CCP) has put a lot of money into different projects aimed at spreading soft power around the world and thereby strengthening its position as the only China. Taiwan has tried to counteract the CCP’s soft power projection for years. Typically, this has involved paying for vital infrastructure projects and sharing know-how regarding agriculture and medicine in less developed countries, such as a solar power plant. The CCP, on the other hand, goes to the countries, builds something large and flashy after giving a loan to that country but it does make for a nice photo shoot with the Chinese ambassador and local politicians. Big spending like this is China’s way of buying off Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in order to deprive it of one key characteristic of a country: diplomatic relations with other countries.
During the ongoing pandemic, the CCP tried to buy off Paraguay, a country that still recognises Taiwan, with its own vaccines, according to Paraguay’s foreign minister. China of course denies this, although it’s not hard to see why: people are seeing right through the ploy and the Chinese Sinovac vaccine has a whopping 50 % efficacy rate. Yet, since the Western world is hoarding vaccines like toilet paper, China has been able to try itself in vaccine diplomacy. No matter how subpar its vaccines are, they’re still the best thing people in less developed countries can get as long as countries like Finland are planning to vaccinate a bunch of fur animals. Also, China has used access to its vaccines as a thank you for being among the first to recognise the People’s Republic and/or participating in China’s belt and road initiative.
The CCP has also poured millions of euros into media by buying ad space or broadcasting directly into people’s homes via its own channels that are giving the CCP’s opinions as news. In August of this year, Taiwan launched a new platform to counteract this: TaiwanPlus, which is a free all-English streaming service financed by the state. Its mission is to fight against the likes of CGTN or Global Times that have wiggled their way to many people’s media diet. TaiwanPlus has news and series aiming to present Taiwan in a more positive light. This is not a paid promotion but I can highly recommend it: the news are a good mix between domestic and international, and I’m absolutely hooked on Seqalu: Formosa 1867, which is a historic drama series taking place in said place and year.
Beijing’s recent incursion of the Taiwanese Air Defence Identification Zone is in a way nothing new. The CCP has stated that it considers Taiwan a rebellious province. China’s current leaders have stated that they are willing to go to war in order to bring Taiwan firmly under the control of the CCP. China is in a hurry to ”reunify” the whole of China by 2049: that marks the 100th anniversary the People’s Republic and the expiration date of the Hong Kong and Macao treaties, after which China is free to do whatever it likes with the cities’ special status. In order to let the dust settle for at least a decade, China needs to conquer Taiwan swiftly during the 2020’s or 2030’s.
There are many scenarios on what happens if Taiwan falls to the CCP. None of them are pleasant and most of them are just horrible. Let’s start with Beijing’s claim to the entire South China Sea: the fall of Taiwan would definitely cement it. Democratic countries like Japan and South Korea would find themselves even more encroached by the CCP. As president Tsai Ing-wen said, the fall of Taiwan would mark a triumph of authoritarianism over democracy, adding that especially thanks to the pandemic these authoritarian countries ”are more convinced than ever that their model of governance is better adapted than democracy to the requirements of the twenty-first century”. The recent development in Hong Kong have shown how much you can trust in China’s word about ”one country, two systems”, a policy that has obviously failed.
Many are asking why Taiwan in particular, an island of 23.6 million, is such a thorn in China’s shoe. Taiwan is 60 per cent forested and mostly mountainous. It doesn’t have remarkable stashes of oil, gas or rare earth elements. Indeed, Taiwan cannot offer Beijing anything of material value. Instead, Taiwan offers something else: an alternative to the Chinese people. An alternative on what China could be without the CCP. This alternative model of a society where the CCP doesn’t control the narrative is what Beijing most fears.
As a Finn, I can’t help but think about Taiwan’s situation as a small nation that has a huge neighbour with questionable views on democracy, one party rule and territorial ambitions. After such a situation escalated into the Winter War, Sweden decided to help out Finland on a large scale: by sending clothes, food, money, by taking in Finnish children as refugees and even by establishing a volunteer force of around 10,000 men. The Swedes rallied in support of Finland under the slogan ”Finland’s cause is ours”. If Finland fell, the authoritarianism would spread and the free world would become ever smaller. Finnish history demonstrates that a smaller country can survive even if bullied by its bigger neighbour. However, the price is high, human suffering is immense and the national trauma goes deep for decades. But with sheer will-power, which we call sisu, to overcome the obstacles and stand against the odds that are against you, there’s hope for saving the Taiwanese way of life, one of the most liberal countries in Asia and democracy itself. That’s why I could say that Taiwan’s cause is ours.