There was a general assumption this year, from polls to commentators, that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would win not only an unprecedented third straight term but also an even larger legislative majority than he had previously held. Voters in India had different notions, which were visible on the day of the election result declaration in India. Although Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a larger number of seats than the entirety of the opposition alliance, forming a government will require the assistance of coalition partners. Modi has never had to cede control before, so it’s unclear how he would respond to coalition politics’ weaknesses.
The Elements Affecting the BJP’s Decline
Economic Disparities and Joblessness:
Growing dissatisfaction with the BJP’s economic policy is one of the main causes of its loss of majority. Economic inequality and unemployment have persisted as major problems despite several measures. The electorate is generally dissatisfied since not all facets of society have benefited from economic expansion. The BJP’s support base has been weakened by this resentment, especially among the economically disadvantaged sections.
The growing income gap between urban and rural communities is one notable example. According to reports, whereas urban areas—vast metropolises like Bangalore and Mumbai—have experienced significant economic growth and development, rural areas still face poverty and a shortage of essential services. The Goods and Services Tax (GST) and demonetization, two of the BJP’s main economic initiatives, were supposed to simplify the economy and reduce black money. However, small companies and workers in the unorganized sector were disproportionately impacted by these policies, which resulted in a large loss of jobs and unstable economies in rural and semi-urban areas. Banias’s strong monopoly cannot exist without the cooperation and understanding of the people who own these channels and have turned them into hubs of misinformation for their own financial gain.
According to a survey carried out by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), for example, the jobless rate reached a record high of over 8% in 2023—the highest level in several decades. Furthermore, there was no increase in employment in important industries like manufacturing and agriculture. The youth’s dissatisfaction, stemming from their inability to secure employment despite having more education, was a major factor in the BJP’s declining support base.
Agricultural Adversity
A sizable section of India’s workforce is employed in agriculture, which has encountered several difficulties. Farmer misery has been exacerbated by factors including low support prices, late payments, and growing input expenses. This perceived inability of the administration to deal with these problems has caused the BJP’s traditional bastion of rural supporters to turn against it.
The sequence of farmer protests that started in late 2020 and continued well into 2023 is a striking example of this. Massive demonstrations were organized by farmers from several states, including Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, in opposition to three contentious farm legislation that the BJP administration had proposed. The perception of these rules favoring giant corporations over small farms exacerbated concerns about diminished revenue and heightened susceptibility. The BJP suffered serious and enduring harm to its reputation among farmers even after the laws were eventually repealed and protests continued for a considerable amount of time.
Social Tensions and Polarization
There has been a noticeable increase in social and religious division during the BJP’s rule. Tensions have increased nationwide as a result of the party’s ties to right-wing nationalist organizations and instances of violence across communities. The political environment has significantly changed as a result of this division, which has alienated liberal voters and minority communities. The electorate’s aspiration for a more harmonious and inclusive society has been a major factor in the BJP’s downfall.
The BJP government’s introduction of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are two noteworthy examples. Due to the harsh criticism that these regulations discriminated against Muslims, there were large-scale demonstrations all around the nation. Massive protests in December 2019 in Delhi, the nation’s capital, occasionally descended into violence as a reflection of the ingrained rage and anxiety among the minority populations. A national movement uniting many religious and socioeconomic groups against the BJP was sparked by the perception that the CAA and NRC were being used as instruments to marginalize Muslims.
Fears Concerning Democratic Norms
Concerns have been voiced about the deterioration of democratic institutions and norms under the BJP’s leadership. Fears regarding India’s democracy have been stoked by claims of diminishing checks and balances, stifling free speech, and compromising judicial independence. Voters who cherish democratic ideals and want a government that preserves them have found common ground with these worries.
Limiting Freedom of Expression
The BJP government has suppressed free speech and oppositional voices. In recent years, there have been many reports of internet monitoring, censorship, and intimidation of journalists and activists who are critical of the government. Prominent instances include the detention of activists for allegedly participating in anti-government demonstrations under strict anti-terrorism legislation. The government’s credibility as a defender of democratic principles has been further damaged by charges that these measures are restricting democratic liberties and stifling opposition.
The Emergence of Unified Opposition Fronts and Opposition Alliances
During the 2024 elections, formidable opposition coalitions surfaced, successfully challenging the BJP’s hegemony. Differently minded parties came together to oppose the policies and manner of government of the BJP. By building on the anti-incumbency emotion and presenting an inclusive governance vision, this united front offered the voter a formidable alternative.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and other comparable alliances at the national and regional levels are a striking illustration of its emergence. The UPA brought together a wide range of ideologically opposed parties with the shared goal of opposing the policies and manner of government of the BJP. In order to pose a serious threat to the BJP’s hegemony, parties like the Indian National Congress, Trinamool Congress, and other regional actors banded together and combined their resources and strengths.
Local Leadership and Regional Dynamics
Leaders and parties from the region were crucial in the BJP losing the majority. These leaders received a lot of support because of their established relationships and familiarity with regional problems. They were successful in shifting the balance of power away from the BJP by mobilizing voters around local and regional issues, demonstrating the significance of decentralized leadership in Indian politics.
Dispersed Leadership in Practice
West Bengal is a compelling illustration of the influence of regional dynamics and local leadership. The BJP’s attempts to gain substantial traction in the state were effectively rebuffed by the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Banerjee’s steadfast emphasis on local concerns, such as federalism and Bengali pride, connected with supporters fed up with the BJP’s centralizing inclinations.
Liberal Values’ Appeal: Reiterating Secularism and Inclusivity
The progressive principles of secularism, inclusion, and social justice that the people are increasingly favoring have played a pivotal role in the BJP’s election defeat. A sizable portion of voters have expressed a desire for a government that preserves these principles while tackling problems with economic inequality, social harmony, and environmental sustainability.
The triumph of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) and its coalition allies in the 2024 elections in the state of Kerala is a striking illustration of the voters’ emphasis on inclusivity and secularism. With a resounding win, the CPI(M)-led government—known for its dedication to social welfare and progressive policies—reaffirmed the state’s preference for secular administration.
Concerns about the Environment and Climate
The outcome of the election has also been impacted by the growing public awareness of and concern about environmental issues and climate change. Policies that give priority to renewable energy and environmental conservation are necessary in light of the electorate’s need for sustainable development and comprehensive climate action.
Indian politics enters a new phase.
After the BJP lost its majority in the 2024 elections, India’s political climate underwent a dramatic change. The electorate’s rejection of social division, economic inequality, and what they see as the deterioration of democratic values is a reflection of their desire for a future that is more equitable, inclusive, and sustainable. India’s trajectory and governance will be significantly shaped by the emphasis on liberal ideals as the country begins this new chapter.