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On many social issues, the EU has long been split. Since the eastwards expansion began back in 2004, more and more countries that are deeply conservative have joined the bloc. This has led to showdowns over abortion rights in Poland and gay rights in Croatia, among others. But now that split has taken an ugly, dark turn.
Hungary, long the EU’s problem child and now ranked as only party-free, has enacted an anti-gay “propaganda” law similar to the one enforced in Russia. Far from being an isolated case, however, it has caused rumblings among other Eastern members that may be inclined to follow suit.
The law first exploded into the headlines on 7 July, when the governing Fidesz party announced their intention to enact legislation that would ban the “promotion of unnatural relations” to all under-eighteens through all forms of media. The wording of the law equates homosexuality with paedophilia. Despite a massive backlash from countries across the world, the law came into force on 15 July.
The European Parliament called the law “another intentional and premeditated example of the gradual dismantling of fundamental rights in Hungary”. Budapest hit back by saying that the parliament was only filled with “Brussels bureaucrats”. Curiously, Moscow, which served as the inspiration for this law, has remained quiet amidst the international uproar.
Brussels is looking to sanction Budapest. For the EU to sanction a member state, it has to seek and obtain the approval of all other member states: twenty-six out of twenty-seven. This is where it has to face an uncomfortable reality. Budapest has a close ally come what may: Warsaw.
From attempting to pass a near-blanket ban on abortion, to introducing a history curriculum that deems the EU to be an “unlawful entity”, Warsaw and Brussels have locked horns hard in recent years. Adding to the situation is the fact that Poland is by far the largest eastern member, and the EU’s fifth largest country by population.
Both Fidesz in Hungary and PiS in Poland seem intent on taking their countries backwards. Hungary’s new anti-gay law is certainly the clearest sign yet of this. The backlash towards Budapest, however, does not appear to have made Warsaw even think about changing tact. In fact, it might well have simply emboldened PiS further still. The Sejm, the Polish parliament, is mulling its own version of Hungary’s new law.
The EU has urged Poland to drop its plans. But the objections from Brussels are just words. That is why the EU is looking at implementing more concrete reprisals.
Now that the pandemic is easing across the bloc, Brussels is looking to reintroduce financial sanctions against Warsaw and Budapest. Brussels has already cut Polish and Hungarian access to certain development programs since 2017 and 2018 respectively, but now the EU is looking to strengthen them. By blocking access instead of outright sanctioning the two countries, Brussels is able to circumvent the treaty obligation for unanimity.
The proposal currently being examined in the European Parliament would almost entirely block Polish and Hungarian access to the European Regional Development Fund. This ought to make both governments pay attention.
Like many Eastern member states, both Poland and Hungary rely heavily on the European Regional Development Fund. Designed to help Eastern members “level up” with Western members, the Fund has long been controversial. It accounts for a large percentage of the EU’s overall budget – and Western members generally pay more into it than they receive back. But for the East, it is a lifeline. In fact, the Fund has accounted for two-thirds of all spending on Polish infrastructure since 2013 – some €347billion. Similarly, Hungary receives about €5billion per year, which Budapest uses on everything from repairing major roads to job-creation programmes. Losing this cash would be a body blow to both governments.
Cutting Polish and Hungarian access could have potentially major consequences for the two countries’ peoples. It is not an action that Brussels will want to take lightly – but soon it might well be left with no other choice.
Worryingly for the EU, the democratic backslide in Hungary does appear to be contagious. This might well be what is making the EU act now.
On 1 June 2021, Slovenia took up the rotating Presidency of the European Council from Portugal. On 1 January 2022, it will hand it over to France. But Ljubljana has taken over the role under a cloud.
Like Poland and Hungary, Slovenia joined the EU in 2004. In 2008, it became the first ex-communist country to hold the Presidency – and was widely praised for its handling. Now, times have changed.
Prime Minister Janez Janša, who assumed the role in March 2020, just as the Covid-19 pandemic struck, has already clashed with the EU. Janša has publicly attacked judges – both in Ljubljana and Brussels – named and shamed journalists he views as being “against him”, and refused to appoint two EU prosecutors – something every country that takes the Presidency must do.
Janša may sound like a Balkan Trump, but his unpredictable streak has the potential to take Slovenia in the same direction as Poland and Hungary, should it be left unchecked and untamed.
Brussels has committed itself to building back better and stronger in the post-pandemic era. But building back better and stronger requires unanimity. With Poland and Hungary digging their heels into some very deep soil, doing this will be easier said than done for Brussels. But if the poison of a democratic backslide is now also spreading to Slovenia, then Brussels may well be gearing up for a fight against something far more existential than Covid-19.